Attain worked with Community Health Partnerships to model how different clinical scenarios could impact future estates across all care settings in an ICB. Scenarios included the impact of neighbourhood hubs on future GP and hospital activity, including the number of beds and outpatient appointments. The project was delivered across two systems, Coventry & Warwickshire and Northamptonshire.

This clinical planning is part of the ADEPT (Activity-Driven Estates Planning Tool) programme. The purpose of ADEPT is to support evidence-based and data-driven whole system space planning at System and Place level across primary, community, mental health, and acute care settings.

The work answered the following questions:

  • What are the systems’ significant clinical pathway redesign and neighbourhood care delivery plans across care settings, and will they keep pace with demand?
  • What are the resulting shifts of ‘functional units’ across each care setting, i.e. numbers of beds, consulting rooms, and other clinical spaces?

What We did

Using data and through engagement activities we:

  • Established the activity baseline across activity type and setting (primary care, acute, mental health, and community).

  • Forecast the population growth across the next 15 years and highlighted significant growth age groups.

  • Delivered a "do-nothing" scenario showing significant annual activity increases by activity type over the next 15 years.

  • Produced an overview of the clinical priorities for the system.

  • Developed a set of assumptions to support activity modelling, using local plans and best practice evidence.

  • Modelled “do minimum” and “do maximum” scenarios showing the activity impact by setting.

  • Identified the shift in ‘functional units’ to support delivery of the clinical model.

  • Transitioned the outputs to support modelling of the estate implications.

Outcomes

  • The systems have bespoke reports built on stakeholder-validated assumptions, modelling a range of activity scenarios over the next 15 years.

  • The assumptions were developed through a detailed and bespoke modelling tool, designed to dovetail with the national ADEPT tool. This allows systems to adjust inputs and remodel the outputs as strategies and plans mature.

  • In addition to fulfilling the original brief, the project has received positive feedback from colleagues across the systems, who have identified additional applications for its outputs beyond estates planning.

  • An example of this is the modelled forecast activity across care settings, which is being used directly to support business cases for the implementation of a new neighbourhood-based clinical model.

We worked with Attain on the ADEPT (Activity-Driven Estates Planning Tool) Programme, for which they delivered clinical planning for two ICS areas in the Midlands Region.  They were professional, delivered timely high-quality outputs, and were flexible in their approach.

Sarah Barron, Strategic Delivery Lead, Midlands Community Health Partnerships